Trends for female model types in modelling industry 2013-2021

For becoming a successful model it is not enough just to have tall height, skinny build and the right attitude. As trends influence all areas of life, so in the modelling business, there are different trends for model types that change throughout the seasons. 

The aim of this research was to find out what have been the trends for model types in recent years and how they have evolved. Moreover, let´s try to predict the future based on collected data.

Materials and method

Data was collected from the models.com website. From 2013 up to 2021, the features of the top 50 female runway models were analyzed. Each year consisted of two seasons: January-May and June-December which were examined separately.
Race, hair colour and specific features were the three main investigated parameters.
Because the market for different model types varies according to country and objective of modelling (commercial, haute couture, editorials) only runways of fashion capitals - New York, London, Milan and Paris were examined. Today´s trends in top runway shows determine tomorrow´s most valued models who make campaigns and cover the street posters and magazine pages.

Is it all about skin colour?

Since the current years, European and light-skin models have always prevailed in the model industry. In the past 5 years, this has started to change. As seen in Graph 1 the dominance of European models started to decline in 2017 and is in a falling trend. At the same time, Asian and dark-skinned mannequins have started to take over. Up forward trend is clearly seen especially in dark-skinned models, whose share has climbed from 3 up to 32% from total top runway models within eight years. This is a remarkable 10-times increase. At the same time, the demand for Asian models has not risen remarkably. It had the highest peak in 2019 and declined thereafter, being at the same level where it was eight years ago. In conclusion, more diversity has emerged, but there is still room for improvement, especially for the Asian models.

Graph 1. Diversity on the runway stages

Blond, brunette or red?

As shown in Graph 2, brunette hair has been constantly dominant with a slightly increasing trend (from 72 to 79%). Logically, the share of blondes has therefore slightly declined (from 26 to 19%). The occurrence of red-haired models has been constantly low between 1 and 6% share. 

Now when we know that employing of Asian and dark-skinned models has risen, and almost all of them have dark hair, which contributes to the occurrence of dark-haired models, Europeans with dark hair were examined separately. It revealed that while Asian and dark-skin models have become more common, dark-haired Europeans were less demanded between 2018-2020. Nevertheless, they have regained their dominance during the last season. To emphasize, demand for blonde European models have not increased, but demand for dark hair tones has decreased.

Graph 2. Share of hair colours

A hypothesis was built: Blondes are preferred in Spring/Summer (Jun-Dec) seasons and brunettes in Fall/Winter (Jan-May) seasons.

It occurred that indeed, most of the years, in Spring/Summer season the share of blondes was greater than in Fall/Winter season (Graph 3). Though the difference is usually minor. On average, the blonde models occupy 1/5 of the market in the fall-winter season and 1/4 of the market in the spring-summer season. 

Graph 3. Representation of blondes throughout the seasons

Specific features

Determining the race and hair colour does not still say it all. Specific features were taken into consideration to see, what types of models the industry is really looking for. The main features included:

• Classic beauty - understandable beauty for everyone, "white canvas" that can be turned into any look that client wants.
• Strange - very different, extraordinary look and face lines, not necessarily beautiful, for example, fairy or alien look.
• Strong - defined/high cheekbones, strong jawline, fierce appearance, strong eyebrows.
• Masculine - male-like appearance, mostly short haircut, strong body build, otherwise extremely strong skull structure.
• Feminine - sexy, big lips, beautiful, gentle, feminine body.
• Cute/babyface - childish, soft and round face, narrow chin, big eyes.
• Outstanding - not classical, but also not entirely different. Might be or might not be beautiful. Has some outstanding features (freckles, gap teeth, monochromatic look, cute ears, thick eyebrows, etc).
• Retro - outstanding haircut (short fringe).
  
  
  
  
  
  Graph 4. Trends in features

As seen on Graph 4, throughout the years, outstanding appearance has become most attractive. Unusual facial features together with strong attributes seem to be the key to success. 

Some of the desired traits include strong eyebrows, cute ears, fairy-like appearance, monochromatic look (very light hair and eyebrows), freckles and/or red hair.

In addition to single outstanding features, models with strange or odd beauty have gained the industry´s attention as well. It is difficult to draw a line between "outstanding" and "odd". The classification is subjective and depends a lot on the point of view. Still, it seems that the model market is bored of traditional beauty and is looking for something entirely new. It can be said that models with a very special look or outstanding features have ruled up to 68% of top runway share in recent years.

Models with outstanding features. From left to right: Sara Grace, Adrienne Jüliger, Ratner, Jessie Bloemendaal, Jay Wright

Models who represent strange look. From left to right: Stella Lucia, Molly Bair, Shanelle Nyasiase, Aalyah Hydes, Marjan Jonkman

 Strong facial features are something that the model industry has been looking for. In 2013-2014 48% of top 50 runway models had a strong jawline and robust eyebrows was a bonus as well. 

Strong look examples. From left to right: Line Kjaergaard, Bhumika Arora, Antonina Petkovic, Katya Bybina, Estella Brons

Strong facial features go in hand-by-hand with a masculine look. The share of masculine female models has varied between 0-12% within past eight years with a slight increasing trend. 

Masculine models. From left to right: Ysaunny brito, Lena Hardt,  Chu Wong, Yorgelis Marte, Bente Oort

In return to the latest outbreak in masculinity, feminine models have been valued throughout history. In 2012 and presumably the time before (no available data before 2012) feminine models were more in demand when they had a 20% runway share. The market started to decrease and was at a low point in 2015 when only 6% categorized in the "feminine" group. Femininity had a high peak in 2018 with 14% of top runway models having this appearance. In the past three years, the demand for feminine models has declined again.

Models who represent feminine beauty. From left to right: Sasha Luss, Susanne Knipper, Zhenya Katava, Felice Noorfhoff, Mayowa Nicholas

An emerging trend of a retro look can be pointed out as well. Retro-looking models appeared on the market in 2017 and their presence has increased thereafter, reaching up to 16% in 2020. 

Models with a retro look. From left to right: Evelyn Nagy, Topsy, Hannah Motler, Kim Schell, Sasha Knysh

The rest of the market is shared by classic beauty and cute looking girls and women. In fashion capitals, the trends in demand for usual or cute appearance have not changed remarkably throughout the times. Models with classic beauty have shared 6-22% of the market with a low point in 2016-2017. Cute models that are highly valued in Asia had 6-20% of the runways in investigated years.

The future

It is never possible to predict the future entirely but rather describe various scenarios and their probability.

• Most likely, the decline in European models slows down and on the contrary, the increase in dark-skinned models slows down as well. The past allows us to predict that the share of Asian models stays relatively the same or is the next one to gain a boost.
• Looking into hair colour, blonde European models will be more demanded than brunette ones as dark-skinned and Asian models have a bigger role on the market.
• Most potential own the girls who have outstanding features and/or strong look. 
• Some of the most valued features include: defined cheekbones, thick eyebrows, strong jawline and fairy-like appearance
• Strong look and masculinity will be in the picture for some time more and then will slowly lose its popularity.

The truth is, we never know what might be the very great attribute that comes in next. Strong eyebrows, masculinity and special appearance were the ones that introduced themselves lately. Might it be an upturned nose, round face or mature look? Maybe even feminine bodies will be appreciated one day, who knows? Let the future bring us what it has. I am either way very curious. Are you too?